Gross. A fall blog post. And though I refuse to accept that summer’s over, it’s my job to look ahead to the inevitable. Sorry.

What’s 400 calories when you’re working this hard? Honestly.

The Labour Day long weekend traditionally marks the end of summer, but as the saying goes: every ending is a new beginning. And so, without delay, on comes the fall real estate market. Tuesday marks the unofficial launch of what I like to consider the spring market’s little brother.

Over the course of the year, real estate activity has two peaks; once in the spring (often May) and again in the latter months (Sept./Oct.). This means that the number of listings should be picking up as early as next week, although so too does the number of buyers on the lookout. Now, both the number of buyers and sellers is relatively fewer compared to the spring, but will typically grow in both regards from the number of whom were active in the summer months.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this fall remains quieter than usual; given the strength, & especially the duration, of the spring market this year. With activity having remained strong through early August, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that the number of people who’ve intended to move in 2015 have mostly done so already. These first couple weeks of September should serve as a good indicator of what to expect over the balance of the fall. If the number of new listings is on the small side, then it would be reasonable to expect overall sales volume to come in low relative to typical fall market expectations.

It’s important to consider when reading, or listening to the media discuss what’s about to transpire, exactly what percentage increases or decreases are relative to. Context here is always very important.

If they say home sales are up 2% in September, it could mean a number of things. For example, if sales in September are up 2% from August, that’s really not much of an increase at all given the typical cycle of real estate sales over the course of the year. You expect a growth in volume in the fall. However, if they’re saying prices are up 2% from August, then that is a very big deal, and as a seller, you could stand to benefit greatly from a piping hot market. The best measure for real estate activity is year-over-year sales, meaning – September 2015 sales compared to September 2014 sales – as that accounts for seasonal variations in activity. The best measure for price growth is month-to-month change, or even better, a rolling average of price changes over the course of a few months.

In summary, get ready for lots of junk mail, sponsored Facebook posts & lawn signs in your neighborhood. But enjoy them, because when they’re gone, so too will be the warm colours, decent weather and Instagram pics of Pumpkin Spice Lattes. And we don’t want that now, do we?