Tag Archives: Cambridge

Fall: PSLs & Busy Realtors

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Gross. A fall blog post. And though I refuse to accept that summer’s over, it’s my job to look ahead to the inevitable. Sorry.

Fall: PSLs & busy Realtors.

What’s 400 calories when you’re working this hard? Honestly.

The Labour Day long weekend traditionally marks the end of summer, but as the saying goes: every ending is a new beginning. And so, without delay, on comes the fall real estate market. Tuesday marks the unofficial launch of what I like to consider the spring market’s little brother.

Over the course of the year, real estate activity has two peaks; once in the spring (often May) and again in the latter months (Sept./Oct.). This means that the number of listings should be picking up as early as next week, although so too does the number of buyers on the lookout. Now, both the number of buyers and sellers is relatively fewer compared to the spring, but will typically grow in both regards from the number of whom were active in the summer months.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this fall remains quieter than usual; given the strength, & especially the duration, of the spring market this year. With activity having remained strong through early August, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that the number of people who’ve intended to move in 2015 have mostly done so already. These first couple weeks of September should serve as a good indicator of what to expect over the balance of the fall. If the number of new listings is on the small side, then it would be reasonable to expect overall sales volume to come in low relative to typical fall market expectations.

It’s important to consider when reading, or listening to the media discuss what’s about to transpire, exactly what percentage increases or decreases are relative to. Context here is always very important.

If they say home sales are up 2% in September, it could mean a number of things. For example, if sales in September are up 2% from August, that’s really not much of an increase at all given the typical cycle of real estate sales over the course of the year. You expect a growth in volume in the fall. However, if they’re saying prices are up 2% from August, then that is a very big deal, and as a seller, you could stand to benefit greatly from a piping hot market. The best measure for real estate activity is year-over-year sales, meaning – September 2015 sales compared to September 2014 sales – as that accounts for seasonal variations in activity. The best measure for price growth is month-to-month change, or even better, a rolling average of price changes over the course of a few months.

In summary, get ready for lots of junk mail, sponsored Facebook posts & lawn signs in your neighborhood. But enjoy them, because when they’re gone, so too will be the warm colours, decent weather and Instagram pics of Pumpkin Spice Lattes. And we don’t want that now, do we?

Upsize or upgrade? More Canadians choosing the latter.

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Are you up for the challenge? Have you done your own home renos before?

Are you up for the challenge? Have you done your own home renos before?

Over the past year, Canadians (especially in major urban centres) have been driving the renovation industry past the new construction industry, as housing affordability dives ever-lower. The trend, seemingly brought on by faster price growth in larger homes, is a further sign of income inequality. The wealthy making more and the poor earning less. People unable to afford the space they desire in larger homes, are finding themselves forced to manufacture space- via remodeling, finishing a basement, or creating an addition.

Spending on renovations outpaces new home construction

By Tara Perkins, Globe & Mail

A rising proportion of homeowners find it impossible to trade up to higher-priced residences

More money was spent renovating homes in Canada than building new ones during the 12 months to the end of June, according to data compiled by the Bank of Montreal.

“In the four quarters through [the second quarter], renovation activity outpaced investment in new residential construction $48.4-billion to $46.3-billion, as the latter has rolled over recently,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic pointed out in a recent research note. “Indeed, while new construction spending was down in recent quarters, renovation spending accelerated to a 6.9 per cent year-over-year clip in Q2.”

That fits recent findings from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal. He noticed that prices of higher-priced homes are rising faster than prices of lower-priced homes in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. That’s making it harder for homeowners to trade up to a bigger or better home. “Regardless of what your starting point is, and by how much your property has appreciated, the desired move up target is getting further and further out of reach,” Mr. Tal wrote in a research note last month.

So homeowners are increasingly choosing to renovate. “Over the past five years, spending on home renovations as a share of total residential investment averaged close to 46 per cent – by far the largest share on record,” Mr. Tal wrote.

The increasing inability to trade up is not the only factor that economists foresee weighing on the number of homes changing hands. “An aging population – the proportion of Canadians aged 65 and over is expected to climb from 15 per cent in 2013 to 23 per cent by 2030 – will reduce housing turnover, and the volume of listings and sales transactions,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren wrote in a research note Thursday. “The likelihood of moving in any given year declines progressively with age. Between 2006 and 2011, only 11 per cent of homeowners aged 65 and over changed residences, compared with 34 per cent of all other homeowners.”

With a larger elderly population staying put in their homes, and a rising proportion of homeowners unable to trade up, demand for renovation work could stay strong.

Ms. Warren estimates that annual growth in the number of Canadian households should remain relatively high around 180,000 to the end of the decade, before gradually declining to around 150,000 by 2030.

“By 2020, the bulk of the relatively large baby echo generation will have formed independent households, while the share of the population 75 and over begins to climb more rapidly,” she wrote. “This level of household formation is consistent with a sustainable annual pace of housing starts, including replacement demand, of around 155,000 in 2030, down from around 185,000 today.”

But Ms. Warren added that even with the slowdown in household formation, Canada’s total housing stock (both rental units and those for owner-occupiers) will have to expand by more than 2.5 million units between now and 2030 to meet the needs of the population.

So, while renovations will likely remain strong, new home construction will still be a force in the economy.”

Naturally, in the local markets, land values haven’t increased to such elevated levels that the renovation industry is outpacing its construction counterparts; but this is certainly all a by-product of surging land prices. It’s a constant battle for space-efficient designs that isn’t going anywhere.

As interest rates begin to rise again, smaller debt loads will become more imperative for homeowners looking to balance their books. A line of credit, whether personal or from the equity they’ve built, allows them to carry a smaller balance than a new mortgage on a larger house, while also avoiding the mortgage penalties & other costs of moving. I would look for this trend to continue for some time, as homeowners finance the work instead of financing the move.

What’s my home worth? This flyer told me I should know.

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You know what people hate? Junk mail.

You know what some Realtors love to send people? Junk mail.

I’m sure there are more than a few people wondering what’s involved in one of those “free home evaluations” that you always get a flyer for. Hell, I got two this week (Sorry fellow agents, I threw them out), they must be important. Truth is home evaluations are actually a pretty handy marketing tool for agents, and useful knowledge for homeowners.

Are us Realtors really just giving away services? How do we make money?

As a seller, you've got a few options...

As a seller, you’ve got a few options…

Well, a home evaluation or “complementary market analysis” is a gateway, commonly referred to as a loss leader. They’re like a kids eat free promotion at a restaurant that gets hefty, football-watching, mammoth dads through the door to throw back a giant slab of meaty goodness for $30. Sure you lose out on the 5 bucks from little Jimmy’s grilled cheese and fries, but he’s not paying the bills or making the decisions. Realtors spend the time, for free, to scout your home and harvest you as a prospective client. Then they make that money back down the road on the sale of your home when you inevitably call them because they’ve established a relationship with you. This isn’t a tactic or scheme, it’s smart business. You’re not tied to them at all, so you’re still free to use whoever you’d like. It’s just that you’re more likely to call them, and they now know your home better than any other agent.

Keep in mind that as we go along here, there’s a difference between Realtors and appraisers. A Realtor can quickly give you a very good estimate of your house’s value, often from experience alone. It serves to come up with an attainable list price for your home that the market would be willing to pay. Realtors are often immersed in the marketplace on a daily basis and have a good sense of market conditions. Despite being accurate very often, they are certainly an opinion and the market will react as it will when the time comes. And, just like any business, you may get one or two “professionals” who are off-base, so make sure you do a little homework to pick someone well-qualified (Sidebar: I am well-qualified). It won’t hurt to get a second opinion if you feel the first is out of line.

There are 3 main methods of appraisal: the cost approach, sales comparison approach, and the income approach. The instances where each are used vary, and typically all home evaluations are done via a single means, due to their accuracy and consideration of timing.

The one you’re least likely to see is the income approach, unless you’re selling a multi-unit dwelling from which you garner regular revenues. It is mostly used for commercial and industrial valuations, and involves the use of discount rates and cash flows to determine a reasonable price to generate a sufficient return for the buyer. If comparable properties to the one we’re trying to price have a discount rate around 8%, and our unit brings in $24,000/year, then our value would be $300,000 ($24,000/0.08).

Still with me? Remember, that one doesn’t get used often. If you’re already lost, then I’ve done my selling job and made you need me even more. Excellent.

The second method -one that can be used more frequently in residential valuations- is the cost approach. Effectively, it equates to the cost to replicate the building, if the buyer were to build it to its current condition. It considers the value of the property, and then adds the cost of improvements, before also accounting for depreciation.

Here’s a VERY simplified example:

If a house was worth $250,000, and the seller installed a $10,000 rec room theatre system with a 20 year life, 3 years ago, the cost approach would then re-value the house at $258,500.

Make sense? The trouble with this method is that upgrades rarely see the true cost returned to a seller. If a house goes from a dump to fully-turnkey, there may be a profit margin for the seller. Often though, if there is more work to be done, buyers will see that before the true value of renovations. It is also hard to gauge land value premiums, and incorporate those true costs, since the available for vacant land, particularly in subdivisions, has been slim for many years.

So let’s take a look at the one your Realtor will do for you, since it’s the one that you’re probably most interested in.

The sales comparison approach is what you’ll get when you bring in a Realtor, be it from junk mail or their awesome, informative blog posts- either or. It’s the most effective way of determining market conditions on a city-by-city, neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood, street-by-street basis. Using information that they alone can access, Realtors are able to determine the market value of your home by comparing a number of variables within your home, to others that have sold previously.

A Realtor will develop a list of similar properties called “comparables”, and adjust their estimate of your home’s value by the differences in those homes and the subsequent changes in price associated with those differences. Some common variables include, but are certainly not limited to: the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, square footage, sale date and house style, all of which can have a large impact on the price of the house. With the development of subdivisions and model homes, it’s become even easier to find accurate comparables, since identical layouts and floor plans are used in multiple homes in the same area. Sometimes, variables such as how well a home shows to potential buyers requires putting a dollar value on a qualitative impression. That quantifying ability comes from experience and knowledge of what attracts buyers, along with what buyers are willing to pay for…and ultimately, how much.

Here’s an purely hypothetical example that illustrates the sales comparison approach. Again, it’s very simplified, but hey.

Mike’s house has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1800 square feet and is a 2-storey detached house in the Westminster Woods neighbourhood.

Now, a value is determined for each variable, which is then roughly applied to the price of the best comparables. This can be done using common market estimates of value, or for the most specific info, by virtue of a regression analysis. For the purposes of the example, we’ll say that bedrooms are worth $25,000;  full baths are $20,000; space is valued at $50/sq. ft., and comparable home prices have gone up an average of $24,000 in the past year.

So, with that taken into consideration, Mike’s Realtor finds that a good comparable for his home is another two-storey detached home sold in Westminster Woods, 4 months ago. It had 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and was 1920 square feet. It sold for it’s full asking price of $465,000.

Here is where being decent at math is a big plus. You’d first subtract $25,000 from that price to account for the drop from 4 bedrooms to 3; then take off another $10k for the half-bath Mike doesn’t have. By also having 120 less square feet, the Realtor would drop $6,000 off the $465,000 as well. It’s not all bad news for Mike though. Given the strong market and home values rising $2,000/month, Mike can expect $8,000 more than he would’ve got if the houses had sold at the same time.

Therefore, we can see the value estimate as follows: $465,000-$25,000-$10,000-$6,000+$8,000= $432,000. Even though his house was valued at $432,000, Mike would probably factor some negotiating room into his listing price. For that reason, Realtors are invaluable, since the sale price should be a much greater consideration than the listing price, which is often all the public has access to.

Every house has a price, but finding the right one, right away, is the key to a quick, hassle-free sale. If you comparison shop Realtors and get multiple estimates before listing your home, keep in mind that the highest one isn’t necessarily the best. It might be, and your house may sell for that. But overpricing your house can be dangerous, since a house that sits develops a stigma and can often sell for less than it otherwise may have if priced correctly at the beginning.

Realtors are an invaluable resource when it comes to selling your home. A home evaluation can be helpful to homeowners, even before the time comes to sell. It can help establish a budget for your next purchase, and plan for your future. For a free home evaluation, call me at 519-837-0900, or just wait for anyone to drop a flyer in your mailbox. I know which one I’d choose.