Tag Archives: financing

Upsize or upgrade? More Canadians choosing the latter.

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Are you up for the challenge? Have you done your own home renos before?

Are you up for the challenge? Have you done your own home renos before?

Over the past year, Canadians (especially in major urban centres) have been driving the renovation industry past the new construction industry, as housing affordability dives ever-lower. The trend, seemingly brought on by faster price growth in larger homes, is a further sign of income inequality. The wealthy making more and the poor earning less. People unable to afford the space they desire in larger homes, are finding themselves forced to manufacture space- via remodeling, finishing a basement, or creating an addition.

Spending on renovations outpaces new home construction

By Tara Perkins, Globe & Mail

A rising proportion of homeowners find it impossible to trade up to higher-priced residences

More money was spent renovating homes in Canada than building new ones during the 12 months to the end of June, according to data compiled by the Bank of Montreal.

“In the four quarters through [the second quarter], renovation activity outpaced investment in new residential construction $48.4-billion to $46.3-billion, as the latter has rolled over recently,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic pointed out in a recent research note. “Indeed, while new construction spending was down in recent quarters, renovation spending accelerated to a 6.9 per cent year-over-year clip in Q2.”

That fits recent findings from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal. He noticed that prices of higher-priced homes are rising faster than prices of lower-priced homes in cities such as Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton. That’s making it harder for homeowners to trade up to a bigger or better home. “Regardless of what your starting point is, and by how much your property has appreciated, the desired move up target is getting further and further out of reach,” Mr. Tal wrote in a research note last month.

So homeowners are increasingly choosing to renovate. “Over the past five years, spending on home renovations as a share of total residential investment averaged close to 46 per cent – by far the largest share on record,” Mr. Tal wrote.

The increasing inability to trade up is not the only factor that economists foresee weighing on the number of homes changing hands. “An aging population – the proportion of Canadians aged 65 and over is expected to climb from 15 per cent in 2013 to 23 per cent by 2030 – will reduce housing turnover, and the volume of listings and sales transactions,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren wrote in a research note Thursday. “The likelihood of moving in any given year declines progressively with age. Between 2006 and 2011, only 11 per cent of homeowners aged 65 and over changed residences, compared with 34 per cent of all other homeowners.”

With a larger elderly population staying put in their homes, and a rising proportion of homeowners unable to trade up, demand for renovation work could stay strong.

Ms. Warren estimates that annual growth in the number of Canadian households should remain relatively high around 180,000 to the end of the decade, before gradually declining to around 150,000 by 2030.

“By 2020, the bulk of the relatively large baby echo generation will have formed independent households, while the share of the population 75 and over begins to climb more rapidly,” she wrote. “This level of household formation is consistent with a sustainable annual pace of housing starts, including replacement demand, of around 155,000 in 2030, down from around 185,000 today.”

But Ms. Warren added that even with the slowdown in household formation, Canada’s total housing stock (both rental units and those for owner-occupiers) will have to expand by more than 2.5 million units between now and 2030 to meet the needs of the population.

So, while renovations will likely remain strong, new home construction will still be a force in the economy.”

Naturally, in the local markets, land values haven’t increased to such elevated levels that the renovation industry is outpacing its construction counterparts; but this is certainly all a by-product of surging land prices. It’s a constant battle for space-efficient designs that isn’t going anywhere.

As interest rates begin to rise again, smaller debt loads will become more imperative for homeowners looking to balance their books. A line of credit, whether personal or from the equity they’ve built, allows them to carry a smaller balance than a new mortgage on a larger house, while also avoiding the mortgage penalties & other costs of moving. I would look for this trend to continue for some time, as homeowners finance the work instead of financing the move.

House price relief coming for first-timers?

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reduced priceIs there a light at the end of the tunnel for first-time buyers? In spite of the first calls for price declines, lower prices may not mean an easier buy.

In a recent report, Robert Hogue, an economist for Royal Bank, sparked some interest by claiming that he expected interest rates to rise enough over the balance of 2014 & through 2015 to incite a drop in the sales prices of homes in 2016. That price drop would come on the heels of slower than average price growth through 2015 as well, which he estimates could be somewhere around 1.1%. The article here is worth a read for some perspective:

RBC economist predicts home price declines in 2016 as rates rise

Tara Perkins, Globe and Mail, August 20th 2014.

An economist at Canada’s biggest bank says home prices could start falling in 2016 if interest rates return to more normal levels. And he warned that, in the meantime, what goes up will likely come down if salaries and incomes don’t keep pace.

“The higher home prices get relative to income by the time rising interest rates really start to bite, the more prices will have to adjust (downwardly) over time to keep longer-term affordability from reaching intolerable levels,” Royal Bank of Canada economist Robert Hogue wrote in a research note Wednesday. “This means that any price increases exceeding the rate of household income gains in the near term (2014 and 2015) likely would result in steeper price declines down the road.”

Mr. Hogue is now expecting sales to tick down by almost 1 per cent next year, and home prices to rise by just 1.1 per cent (he is expecting prices to rise 4.3 per cent this year). That’s actually a stronger forecast than he released just two months ago, because low mortgage rates have been giving the housing market more fuel than expected. He’s now cautioning that too much momentum could be a bad thing for the market long term.

He believes that the current low level of interest rates is not sustainable, and that longer-term rates could rise meaningfully by late 2015 (RBC expects five-year Government of Canada bond yields to more than double to 3.30 per cent by the end of 2015. Five-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move in step with five-year government bond yields).

Rising interest rates will erode housing affordability, which Mr. Hogue notes is already stretched in some markets. “We expect the current upward momentum in home prices to wane gradually, as demand cools and more home sellers emerge,” he wrote. “We expect that the current condo construction boom in large urban centres will bring more properties on the resale market as units are completed. While the majority of condo units under construction are already sold, rapid increase in the stock of existing condos is likely to create a displacement effect whereby older units are vacated in favour of newer ones.”

Looking across the country, he expects a decline in the number of homes sold next year everywhere except in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. “High-priced British Columbia (mainly Vancouver) and Ontario (mainly Toronto) markets are projected to see the bigger drops (2.3 and 1.3 per cent, respectively), reflecting a more extensive erosion of affordability,” he wrote. “We forecast the resale declines in the other provinces to be modest to marginal.”

As for prices, he is forecasting a significant slowdown in the rate of growth next year everywhere except across Atlantic Canada, with Quebec likely to see a small decline in prices.

“Prices in B.C. and Ontario are forecasted to show greater moderation since this is where these negative pressures will be more intense,” he wrote. “Alberta remains at the top of our rankings for next year thanks to its strong economy and in-migration keeping the demand-supply equation still somewhat tight. We expect prices in Atlantic Canada to continue to track a slight upward trajectory.”

A number of signs have pointed to an inevitable decline in housing prices, particularly when it comes to the affordability indexes of housing relative to other necessary expenses. Salaries simply aren’t growing at the rate of housing prices, an issue that has been present since the beginning of the 21st century, if not sooner. It’s safe to say that, at least relatively speaking, we’re approaching the ceiling in terms of how much Canadians can spend on their abodes.

As noted above, Hogue expects Toronto to be among the hardest hit regions, although I don’t necessarily share that sentiment myself. While I understand that it’s among the most expensive real estate markets in the world in some clusters, I would expect that some buyers may turn to less expensive properties and create a bulge in the middle of the price spectrum (There are places in Toronto for less than $100k).

In my opinion, there are ample buyers in the Toronto single-detached market to sustain the current levels of sales activity. If there is a decline, it makes the most sense to me that the pre-construction condo market would be the first to go. I could understand sales being hampered by an unwillingness to tie-up deposits with slower price growth, speculation of price retractions, and more profitable options for those monies. This in turn though could have the opposite effect on the pricing of resale condominiums.

In terms of the effects on first-time buyers, there are divergent effects; the ultimate weight of which remains to be seen. On one hand, the increased rates, should they force downward price pressure, could result in lower sales prices as Hogue speculates. At the same time, first-timers will be facing a higher cost of borrowing, which could be detrimental for those attempting to buy with smaller down payments.

The luxury that first-time buyers have is time. It’s not worth waiting for prices to drop to make a first purchase. Even with a lower purchase price; unless you’re buying with cash, the net effect will be marginal. Keep in mind that there are going to be many fluctuations of the housing market over your 50 or so years of home ownership; and the housing market has traditionally done very well at weathering the storms. Whether you’re buying now or later, the net effect of 2-year price decline over 50 years is going to be negligible over the long-term. Consider too that when selling, chances are you’re concurrently buying as well -which means that even if you’re selling at a low point, you’re probably getting the same discount on the house you buy. It all works out in the end.