Tag Archives: Selling

Fall: PSLs & Busy Realtors

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Gross. A fall blog post. And though I refuse to accept that summer’s over, it’s my job to look ahead to the inevitable. Sorry.

Fall: PSLs & busy Realtors.

What’s 400 calories when you’re working this hard? Honestly.

The Labour Day long weekend traditionally marks the end of summer, but as the saying goes: every ending is a new beginning. And so, without delay, on comes the fall real estate market. Tuesday marks the unofficial launch of what I like to consider the spring market’s little brother.

Over the course of the year, real estate activity has two peaks; once in the spring (often May) and again in the latter months (Sept./Oct.). This means that the number of listings should be picking up as early as next week, although so too does the number of buyers on the lookout. Now, both the number of buyers and sellers is relatively fewer compared to the spring, but will typically grow in both regards from the number of whom were active in the summer months.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this fall remains quieter than usual; given the strength, & especially the duration, of the spring market this year. With activity having remained strong through early August, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that the number of people who’ve intended to move in 2015 have mostly done so already. These first couple weeks of September should serve as a good indicator of what to expect over the balance of the fall. If the number of new listings is on the small side, then it would be reasonable to expect overall sales volume to come in low relative to typical fall market expectations.

It’s important to consider when reading, or listening to the media discuss what’s about to transpire, exactly what percentage increases or decreases are relative to. Context here is always very important.

If they say home sales are up 2% in September, it could mean a number of things. For example, if sales in September are up 2% from August, that’s really not much of an increase at all given the typical cycle of real estate sales over the course of the year. You expect a growth in volume in the fall. However, if they’re saying prices are up 2% from August, then that is a very big deal, and as a seller, you could stand to benefit greatly from a piping hot market. The best measure for real estate activity is year-over-year sales, meaning – September 2015 sales compared to September 2014 sales – as that accounts for seasonal variations in activity. The best measure for price growth is month-to-month change, or even better, a rolling average of price changes over the course of a few months.

In summary, get ready for lots of junk mail, sponsored Facebook posts & lawn signs in your neighborhood. But enjoy them, because when they’re gone, so too will be the warm colours, decent weather and Instagram pics of Pumpkin Spice Lattes. And we don’t want that now, do we?

Multiple-Offers: Winning, or At Least, Not Losing

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Real_Time_BiddingBy now you’ve heard about the wild, buyer free-for-all that is the Toronto real estate market. The number of buyers looking to make a move combined with a shortage of lucrative inventory has created a sellers’ market to end all sellers’ markets. We’re starting to see multiple offer situations on Toronto condos again, a trend not seen in recent years as condo supply reached some record highs.

Chances are you may have seen other stories about multiple offers, but none compare to this one from last week that saw a house in the Yonge & Lawrence area, listed at $699,900, sell for $1,366,000 with 72 offers. SEVENTY-TWO.

I have no idea how this happens. At offer number 10, your odds as a buyer are incredibly slim, to the point that you probably shouldn’t bother. But hey, there’s a chance right? Apparently then, another 62 people proceeded not to care much for the odds either.

Naturally, there were likely a ton of offers in there that were just doing the sellers a favour by boosting the quantity of competition, without being a real threat to the serious buyers. The offers that included sale of property, financing, or insurance conditions would fall into that category. So would anything around asking price. Regardless though, they were there, and on every other bidder’s mind when it came to formulating an offer price.

In competition, the cleaner an offer is, the more lucrative the offer, as oftentimes conditions can be as important as price. When there are 72 offers to choose from, the seller isn’t going to accept a condition that forces them to wait for a house in a less sought after to sell. They’re taking the sure thing.

By far the biggest challenge buyers face in multiple offer scenarios is the blind bidding process. This will always garner the optimal result for the seller and will leave at least one bidder with a bad taste in their mouth, and hopefully that’s if they lose. In the story above, I’m sure all 72 will end up with some degree of animosity. From the guy who bid $675k conditional on the sale of his place in Georgetown; to the woman with the second best offer who lost by a few grand; to the winners who’ll look back at the $1.1M house they just paid an extra $260k for, and who will then be putting another few hundred thousand into fixing it up; they all lose. Working in their sellers’ best interest, listing agents don’t disclose any terms of the competing offers to the buyer agents, which forces buyers to put their best foot forward right off the bat. The best case for the buyer in multiples is that they get a house they love for what it’s worth. With 72 offers, that’s not happening.

Congrats to the listing agent for drumming up that many offers and doing their seller client a huge favour. At the same time, buyers and their agents need to do a better job of knowing what market value on a house like that is. Ultimately, list price doesn’t mean a thing. Only people who are willing to pay what a house is worth should be offering, and I’m willing to bet that 80% of those offers were nowhere close. As Toronto Realtor David Fleming (@TORealtyBlog, a solid twitter follow) was quoted saying, “we’re in a hot market, but no house is hot enough to get 72 offers”.

Fortunately, most of you aren’t buying in Toronto and will probably never encounter such an absurd scenario. There is a chance though, depending on location and market conditions, that you could find yourself in competition with a few other buyers. Let’s take a look at that process and what you can do to win out, or at least feel good about walking away.

As a buyer, you really need to weigh your interest in a property before committing to a multiple-offer situation in an attempt to buy a property. If you really love the house, chances are you’ll find a way to come up with a few thousand dollars if you need it. Because of the competitive nature of things though, it’s important not to get caught up in winning but rather ensuring you still like the house you buy at the end of the day.

When sellers receive multiple offers to purchase they basically have 4 options:

  1. Accept the best offer
  2. Send any number of the offers back for buyers to try again
  3. Counter-offer on the best offer
  4. Work with none of the offers

Number 4 is pretty rare. After all, as a seller, if you go routes 2 or 3, you’re not committing to any of the offers either, but it’s much better to work with an offer you have in front of you than to wait and hope a few more materialize. Your first offer is usually your best offer, so if you can pit more than one buyer against each other, you’re crazy not to.

With option 3, if a seller counters your offer, it gives you a sliver of leverage since you know that there are no other offers in play at the moment, and that the seller has lost their competitive scenario. However, you know that those offers could come back in at any time if you don’t accept the sellers’ counter offer. The seller is basically telling you that your offer was the best, and may be making a change to the closing date or a condition that’s simply there for you to accept and win the battle.

Leverage as a seller is paramount. I’ve offered with clients in a multiple-offer scenario which we lost, but when the other offer fell through, we went back in $5,000 lower than our original offer knowing that we had no competition. My clients ultimately got the house for $3,000 less than their original offer. If you’re a seller, you better make damn sure the counter is going to be accepted if you choose to go with option 3.

If the sellers send you and others back to submit a new offer, it’s for one of two reasons: Either none of the offers were acceptable OR multiple offers were very close to each other and the seller thinks they can get higher bids back from one or more to put them over the top. It’s a bit of a slap in the face and maybe a tad greedy, but if the seller thinks that buyers’ interest outweighs the offense, it’s a seller-friendly strategy that they can employ.

As a buyer, number 1 is the easiest to navigate if you win, but sometimes hard to swallow if you don’t. Eventually your agent is going to find out what it sold for (potentially right away if the winning offer is condition-free) and the worst thing that can happen is your agent giving you the sale price and it being something you would’ve been willing to pay. There you’re back to square one. Two of my listings have sold with multiple offers in the last 2 weeks, and the phone calls to the losers in the bidding process are usually tough ones to make. Let’s make sure that phone call doesn’t happen.

Multiple-offers can be a sticky situation as a buyer, so make sure you’ve got an agent who’s been there before and can help you strategize to achieve the best outcome for you. You’ll be glad you did.

What’s my home worth? This flyer told me I should know.

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You know what people hate? Junk mail.

You know what some Realtors love to send people? Junk mail.

I’m sure there are more than a few people wondering what’s involved in one of those “free home evaluations” that you always get a flyer for. Hell, I got two this week (Sorry fellow agents, I threw them out), they must be important. Truth is home evaluations are actually a pretty handy marketing tool for agents, and useful knowledge for homeowners.

Are us Realtors really just giving away services? How do we make money?

As a seller, you've got a few options...

As a seller, you’ve got a few options…

Well, a home evaluation or “complementary market analysis” is a gateway, commonly referred to as a loss leader. They’re like a kids eat free promotion at a restaurant that gets hefty, football-watching, mammoth dads through the door to throw back a giant slab of meaty goodness for $30. Sure you lose out on the 5 bucks from little Jimmy’s grilled cheese and fries, but he’s not paying the bills or making the decisions. Realtors spend the time, for free, to scout your home and harvest you as a prospective client. Then they make that money back down the road on the sale of your home when you inevitably call them because they’ve established a relationship with you. This isn’t a tactic or scheme, it’s smart business. You’re not tied to them at all, so you’re still free to use whoever you’d like. It’s just that you’re more likely to call them, and they now know your home better than any other agent.

Keep in mind that as we go along here, there’s a difference between Realtors and appraisers. A Realtor can quickly give you a very good estimate of your house’s value, often from experience alone. It serves to come up with an attainable list price for your home that the market would be willing to pay. Realtors are often immersed in the marketplace on a daily basis and have a good sense of market conditions. Despite being accurate very often, they are certainly an opinion and the market will react as it will when the time comes. And, just like any business, you may get one or two “professionals” who are off-base, so make sure you do a little homework to pick someone well-qualified (Sidebar: I am well-qualified). It won’t hurt to get a second opinion if you feel the first is out of line.

There are 3 main methods of appraisal: the cost approach, sales comparison approach, and the income approach. The instances where each are used vary, and typically all home evaluations are done via a single means, due to their accuracy and consideration of timing.

The one you’re least likely to see is the income approach, unless you’re selling a multi-unit dwelling from which you garner regular revenues. It is mostly used for commercial and industrial valuations, and involves the use of discount rates and cash flows to determine a reasonable price to generate a sufficient return for the buyer. If comparable properties to the one we’re trying to price have a discount rate around 8%, and our unit brings in $24,000/year, then our value would be $300,000 ($24,000/0.08).

Still with me? Remember, that one doesn’t get used often. If you’re already lost, then I’ve done my selling job and made you need me even more. Excellent.

The second method -one that can be used more frequently in residential valuations- is the cost approach. Effectively, it equates to the cost to replicate the building, if the buyer were to build it to its current condition. It considers the value of the property, and then adds the cost of improvements, before also accounting for depreciation.

Here’s a VERY simplified example:

If a house was worth $250,000, and the seller installed a $10,000 rec room theatre system with a 20 year life, 3 years ago, the cost approach would then re-value the house at $258,500.

Make sense? The trouble with this method is that upgrades rarely see the true cost returned to a seller. If a house goes from a dump to fully-turnkey, there may be a profit margin for the seller. Often though, if there is more work to be done, buyers will see that before the true value of renovations. It is also hard to gauge land value premiums, and incorporate those true costs, since the available for vacant land, particularly in subdivisions, has been slim for many years.

So let’s take a look at the one your Realtor will do for you, since it’s the one that you’re probably most interested in.

The sales comparison approach is what you’ll get when you bring in a Realtor, be it from junk mail or their awesome, informative blog posts- either or. It’s the most effective way of determining market conditions on a city-by-city, neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood, street-by-street basis. Using information that they alone can access, Realtors are able to determine the market value of your home by comparing a number of variables within your home, to others that have sold previously.

A Realtor will develop a list of similar properties called “comparables”, and adjust their estimate of your home’s value by the differences in those homes and the subsequent changes in price associated with those differences. Some common variables include, but are certainly not limited to: the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, square footage, sale date and house style, all of which can have a large impact on the price of the house. With the development of subdivisions and model homes, it’s become even easier to find accurate comparables, since identical layouts and floor plans are used in multiple homes in the same area. Sometimes, variables such as how well a home shows to potential buyers requires putting a dollar value on a qualitative impression. That quantifying ability comes from experience and knowledge of what attracts buyers, along with what buyers are willing to pay for…and ultimately, how much.

Here’s an purely hypothetical example that illustrates the sales comparison approach. Again, it’s very simplified, but hey.

Mike’s house has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1800 square feet and is a 2-storey detached house in the Westminster Woods neighbourhood.

Now, a value is determined for each variable, which is then roughly applied to the price of the best comparables. This can be done using common market estimates of value, or for the most specific info, by virtue of a regression analysis. For the purposes of the example, we’ll say that bedrooms are worth $25,000;  full baths are $20,000; space is valued at $50/sq. ft., and comparable home prices have gone up an average of $24,000 in the past year.

So, with that taken into consideration, Mike’s Realtor finds that a good comparable for his home is another two-storey detached home sold in Westminster Woods, 4 months ago. It had 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and was 1920 square feet. It sold for it’s full asking price of $465,000.

Here is where being decent at math is a big plus. You’d first subtract $25,000 from that price to account for the drop from 4 bedrooms to 3; then take off another $10k for the half-bath Mike doesn’t have. By also having 120 less square feet, the Realtor would drop $6,000 off the $465,000 as well. It’s not all bad news for Mike though. Given the strong market and home values rising $2,000/month, Mike can expect $8,000 more than he would’ve got if the houses had sold at the same time.

Therefore, we can see the value estimate as follows: $465,000-$25,000-$10,000-$6,000+$8,000= $432,000. Even though his house was valued at $432,000, Mike would probably factor some negotiating room into his listing price. For that reason, Realtors are invaluable, since the sale price should be a much greater consideration than the listing price, which is often all the public has access to.

Every house has a price, but finding the right one, right away, is the key to a quick, hassle-free sale. If you comparison shop Realtors and get multiple estimates before listing your home, keep in mind that the highest one isn’t necessarily the best. It might be, and your house may sell for that. But overpricing your house can be dangerous, since a house that sits develops a stigma and can often sell for less than it otherwise may have if priced correctly at the beginning.

Realtors are an invaluable resource when it comes to selling your home. A home evaluation can be helpful to homeowners, even before the time comes to sell. It can help establish a budget for your next purchase, and plan for your future. For a free home evaluation, call me at 519-837-0900, or just wait for anyone to drop a flyer in your mailbox. I know which one I’d choose.